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"When we do the risk assessment around that baseline, the chances that we would have something like a global recession is fairly minimal. The Washington DC-based institute this week nudged its global growth outlook slightly higher to 3.2% in 2024 and projects the same rate in 2025. One of the International Monetary Fund's top economists signals little risk of a global recession, despite the ongoing rumblings of geopolitical uncertainty. That has all combined with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which had its biggest wider impact on energy prices in Europe in 2022. And that's one of the big risks that we do see, the implications that could have for oil prices could be substantial.
Persons: Gourinchas, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Karen Tso, Gita Gopinath, we're Organizations: U.S, IMF, Washington DC, International Monetary, Palestinian, Hamas, CNBC Locations: Europe, New York, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Gaza, Red, Yemeni, Russia, Ukraine, Asia, Israel, Iran
IMF's Gourinchas: See Fed cutting three times in 2024
  + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIMF's Gourinchas: See Fed cutting three times in 2024Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of the Research Department at the IMF, weighs in on the fund's global outlook on growth and inflation, and why economies are beginning to see such divergence.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: Research Department, IMF
Google DeepMind launched a prototype AI soccer tactics tool last month. DeepMind developed the tool with Liverpool FC, known for its data-driven approach to soccer. AdvertisementGoogle DeepMind is bidding to bring artificial intelligence (AI) into soccer by launching a new tool to help coaches make better tactical decisions. DeepMind researchers published their findings in the scientific journal Nature Communications. Google DeepMindHaving that knowledge on hand helped the collaboration between DeepMind and Liverpool to run smoothly, according to Veličković.
Persons: Google DeepMind, DeepMind, , Zhe Wang, Didier Drogba, Divock, Chelsea's Didier Drogba, Ian MacNicol, Petar Veličković, Billy Beane, Ian Graham, they've, Liverpool —, Monterrey's Sergio Canales, Yuri Cortez, We're, Wang, it'll Organizations: Google, Liverpool FC, Service, English Premier League soccer, Nature Communications, Soccer, Former Ivory Coast, Chelsea, Liverpool, FC Barcelona, UEFA, Boston Red Sox, Fenway Sports Group, Liverpool FC's, Ph.D.s, Harvard, Inter Miami, Getty Locations: London, Cambridge, Anfield, DeepMind, Liverpool, AFP
Four of investors' top five favorite destinations are in Europe, according to the Milken Institute's Global Opportunity Index (GOI) report. The country ranked fifth in the financial services category, which evaluates the overall financial system in a nation as well as the accessibility to finance. Among Asian E&D economies, Malaysia emerged as investors' favorite and ranked 27th globally. Overall, E&D regions "offer attractive opportunities to investors interested in emerging markets with favorable growth potential," the report said. Rising tensions between the U.S. and China, however, have hit inflows to Asian E&D economies, down 75.4% in 2022, the report added.
Persons: Maggie Switek, Switek Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Milken, Denmark, Denmark Sweden Finland United States United, The Milken Institute, The New York Times, U.S Locations: New York, Europe, Denmark, Denmark Sweden Finland United States United Kingdom, U.S, Finland, Asia, Malaysia, China
So we have to talk about the drama that has been playing out in the past week between OpenAI and Elon Musk. According to OpenAI, Elon Musk wanted majority, equity, initial board control, and to be CEO of this new for-profit subsidiary. It’s basically —casey newtonIt’s like, I’m going to find a way to follow your rule, but in the worst way possible. Like, working was one I thought that, oh, I’m going to work in this all the time. kevin roose[LAUGHS]: Well, I thought, like, I’m going to take some spatial videos.
Persons: casey newton Casey, kevin roose, casey newton, Kevin, casey newton What’s, Kevin Roose, Casey Newton, OpenAI, Will, Joanna Stern, Casey, it’s, kevin roose I’m, Elon Musk, It’s, casey newton Let’s, Elon, he’s, I’ve, casey newton What’d, there’s, you’ve, we’re, GPT, Sam Altman’s, that’s, AGI, Annie “, Sam Altman, who’s, isn’t, , we’ve, ” casey newton Go, He’s, Ilya Sutskever, Greg Brockman, Ilya, casey newton Yes, Tesla, casey newton Well, they’ll, casey newton Oh, kevin roose It’s, don’t, kevin roose Will, casey newton Right, casey newton Mhm, kevin roose They’re, Microsoft’s Bing, Microsoft Bing, Bing, Apple, Europe — casey newton, Charles Duhigg, John Gruber, they’ve, casey newton It’d, — casey newton, they’re, They’ve, you’ll, Apple’s, casey newton It’s, I’ll, casey newton Sure, GDPR, you’re, kevin roose Really, let’s, kevin roose Casey, kevin roose —, Jonah Stern, casey newton Wow, Joanna, Let’s, kevin roose Joanna Stern, joanna, casey newton Hi, kevin roose Long, joanna stern, , kevin roose We’re, Kara Swisher, kevin roose Don’t, I’m, casey newton Don’t, casey newton That’s, Neil Patel, Um, kevin roose That’s, kevin roose Sure, casey newton Great, KEVIN, IV, wearables, Fitbits, kevin roose Oh, hadn’t, casey newton —, casey newton I’ve, Joe Rogan Organizations: The New York Times, Elon, Apple’s, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Google’s, Facebook, Tesla, Big, European Union, Digital Services, Giants, Apple, Digital Markets, EU, Bloomberg, Digital, Spotify, General, Apple Vision Pro, Street, Apple Vision, Vision, New York Times, , Housewives, Club, Ray, Tesla Chargers, Vision Pro, Apple Watch, Sony Locations: Los Angeles, Europe, what’s, Elon, OpenAI, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, Reddit, American, America, California, Florida, United, Mars, The
It is the first time Moody’s has lowered Israel’s credit rating, which is used by investors to measure the riskiness of investing in a global entity or government. Moody’s downgraded Israel from A1 to A2 and said the outlook for the country’s economy was “negative.” The A2 rating nonetheless continues to carry relatively low risk, according to Moody's. Photos You Should See View All 21 ImagesStill, Israeli officials fear that the Moody’s downgrade could lead other major agencies also to downgrade Israel’s outlook. Israel’s economy bounced back after previous wars with Hamas, but the current war is much longer than any of those. Concerns about Israel’s governance, rising inflation and a worldwide slowdown in tech investments last year also weighed on the economy.
Persons: , ” Moody’s, Moody’s, Bezalel Smotrich, , Benjamin Netanyahu, Michel Strawczynski, it’s, Amir Yaron, Israel –, Western Europe —, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Moody's Organizations: , Sunday, Finance, Hebrew University, Bank of Israel, Bank of Israel Gov Locations: TEL AVIV, Israel, Gaza, Jerusalem, Western Europe
The company logo of China International Capital Corporation Ltd (CICC), China’s first joint venture investment bank, is displayed at a news conference on the company's annual results in Hong Kong, China March 30, 2016. Additionally, staff at the state-owned investment bank have been asked to not wear luxury brands or disclose their pay. Employees should "make sure their family members adhere to social and ethical standards", the memo said. Banks have also been forced to cut pay and perks for investment bankers, including compensation and budget reductions for travel and entertainment. Reuters reported in April that CICC slashed bankers' bonuses by as much as 40%.
Persons: China’s, Bobby Yip, CICC, Banks, Selena Li, Jason Xue, Sumeet Chatterjee, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: China International Capital Corporation, REUTERS, China International Capital Corp, HK, Reuters, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, HONG KONG, dealmaking
Sports tourism, as it's called, is one of the fastest-growing sectors in the travel industry, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization. "The sport tourism market will continue as long as new opportunities to play and compete exist," she said. Justin Setterfield | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesFor some countries, these events are an opportunity to raise their international standing. Patrick Smith | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesTravel + Leisure Co. and Sports Illustrated Resorts announced plans to open a network of sports-themed resorts in American college towns. Ryan Pierse | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images
Persons: Lisa Delpy Neirotti, George, Neirotti, Delpy, Justin Setterfield, Cristiano Ronaldo, Dustin Johnson, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Delpy Neirotti, Lewis Hamilton, Kym Illman, Jay Wardle, Narendra Modi, Robert Cianflone, Gianni Infantino, Major League Baseball —, Patrick Smith, GetYourGuide, Ryan Pierse Organizations: Summer, Games, Sports, United Nations World Tourism Organization, George Washington University's, Management, Sport, Padres, NFL, MLB, FIFA, Getty, CNBC Travel, Saudi Crown, Fox News, Adara, ICC Men's Cricket, The Bank of Baroda Economics Research, Narendra, MotoGP, Rugby, Las Vegas, Companies, Major League Baseball, Sports Illustrated Resorts, University of Alabama —, McLaren Technology, U.S ., CNBC, Olympic Games, Olympic Locations: Mexico City, Germany, London, Brisbane, Australia, Saudi Arabia, China, Qatar, Singapore, India, New Zealand, Indonesia, France, United States, Tuscaloosa , Alabama, U.S, New York
Most hybrid workers (55%) say paying employees more for their in-office work would provide “a lot” of encouragement for them to work in-person more often. Additional pay topped the list across respondents whether they were working in-person, remotely (44%) or in hybrid (50%) roles. Regardless, many U.S. employees have returned to in-person work, or had never left. Most paid employees report that they work in person per NORC's survey, and three-quarters of those in-person employees say they are required by their employer to do so. The number of people working remotely has fallen significantly since the peak of COVID-19 — but is still far higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Persons: — Justin Ryan Horton, he's, Horton, “ I'm, ” Horton, NORC, ” Marjorie Connelly, Megan Homis, Homis, ” Homis, Bill Castellano, ” Castellano, Connelly, I’m, , Organizations: Workers, University of Chicago, NORC’s Public Affairs & Media Research, Associated Press, Rutgers School of Management, Labor Relations, , Pew Research Center, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Colorado Springs, Southern California
REUTERS/Susana Vera/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsROME, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund wants Italy to make its 2024 budget framework more stringent, as tax cut plans made the Fund "a bit worried", its chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said in a newspaper interview on Thursday. Gourinchas told the Corriere della Sera daily that Italy's structural deficit, net of interest spending, was not seen as falling fast enough. The IMF was "a bit worried" by planned tax cuts that "don't necessarily seem to go in the right direction", he added. It would be "desirable" if Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government revised its fiscal plans to make them more stringent before they are approved by parliament, he said. Over the next month Italy's budget faces scrutiny from credit ratings agencies, with S&P Global, DBRS, Fitch and Moody's all reviewing their assessment of the euro zone's third largest economy.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Susana Vera, Gourinchas, Giorgia, DBRS, Fitch, Moody's, Gavin Jones, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: Research Department IMF, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Monetary Fund, della Sera, IMF, P, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Italy, Rome
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal economy 'limping along' below pre-pandemic growth level, IMF's chief economist saysPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of the research department at the International Monetary Fund, discusses divergences in global growth, resilience in the U.S. and revisions to the IMF's outlook.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: International Monetary Fund Locations: U.S
CNN —A shoe belonging to a child and dating back more than 2,000 years has been unearthed in Austria with its laces still intact. The condition of the shoe found is outstanding,” Professor Thomas Stoellner, head of the Research Department at the German Mining Museum, said in the press release. Excavation work at Dürrnberg is being done to obtain information on the work and lives of Iron age miners, according to the museum. Finding a child’s shoe is “always something special,” because it shows that children were present underground, the museum said. Finds like this child’s shoe, but also textile remains or excrement like those found on Dürrnberg, offer an extremely rare insight into the life of Iron Age miners.”
Persons: , Thomas Stoellner, Stoellner Organizations: CNN, German Mining Museum, Leibniz Research Museum, Geo, Research Department Locations: Austria, German Mining Museum Bochum, Dürrnberg
CNBC Daily Open: Lingering embers of inflation
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks sold offU.S. stocks experienced a sell-off and all major indexes closed in the red. Relatedly, Germany's new manufacturing orders in July fell 11.7% month on month, according to provisional Destatis figures, a big plunge from June's 7.6% increase. EU-designated 'gatekeepers'The European Commission designated Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft as "gatekeepers" under its new Digital Markets Act.
Persons: Stocks, Bob Iger, Bob Chapek, Alex Sherman, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Disney, Apple, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, EU, European, Meta, Microsoft, Markets Locations: U.S
The investment bank has long-term growth tailwinds and is a pure play on a capital market recovery, according to Goldman. A recovery in equity capital markets already underway should help the stock given Jefferies' strength in trading. "We think these structural and cyclical drivers, plus a potential positive upside catalyst from monetization of the last two remaining stakes, and a strong dividend, should drive upside to JEF's shares," Kron said. Macy's came off the list after Goldman analyst Brooke Roach lowered her price target 26% following the retailer's fiscal second-quarter earnings. M YTD mountain Macy's stock in 2023 Macy's joins Spirit AeroSystems and Tanger Factory Outlet Centers , both of which were removed in August from what Goldman calls the "Director's Cut" conviction list.
Persons: Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Steven Kron, Kron, Macy's, Brooke Roach, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Sumitomo, Outlet Centers Locations: U.S
As technology shapes customer habits, entire industries, and society at large, digital transformation has become a critical priority for every company. A February report from Deloitte found effective digital transformation initiatives could increase market capitalization by a staggering $1.25 trillion. From artificial intelligence to extended reality, a variety of technologies are shaping digital transformation strategies. He said he expected industries with "significant human implications," such as healthcare and space exploration, to benefit the most from digital transformation. Extended reality — a combination of virtual reality, augmented reality, and mixed reality often called "XR" — is another technology that could revolutionize organizational cultures.
Persons: Nigel Vaz, Publicis, It's, Vaz, Jean Pelletier, Pelletier, Schneider, Beth Johnson, Johnson, Tom Fairbairn, Tom Fairbairn Fairbairn, Duncan Roberts, Roberts Organizations: Technology, Morning, Deloitte, Netflix, Schneider, Schneider Electric, Citizens Bank, Amazon Prime, Amazon Web Services, Company, Imperial College London Locations: Cognizant
REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File PhotoWASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2023 global growth estimates slightly given resilient economic activity in the first quarter, but warned that persistent challenges were dampening the medium-term outlook. The 2023-2024 growth forecast remains weak by historical standards, well below the annual average of 3.8% seen in 2000-2019, largely due to weaker manufacturing in advanced economies, and it could stay at that level for years. This was also related to the aging of the global population, especially in countries like China, Germany and Japan, he said. The impact of higher interest rates was especially evident in poorer countries, driving debt costs higher and limiting room for priority investments. It left its forecast for growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, unchanged at 5.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Ken Cedeno, we're, Gourinchas, Andrea Shalal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Research Department IMF, International Monetary Fund, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Monetary Fund, IMF, Reuters, Health, El, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, China, Germany, Japan, United States, Ukraine
Credit Suisse Securities (China), 51%-owned by Credit Suisse, is expected to start the cuts, accounting for about 20% of its local workforce, as early as Monday, according to the sources. Credit Suisse, Credit Suisse Securities and UBS declined to comment. The move is aimed at further tightening spending at the joint venture as Credit Suisse "seeks to stem losses", said one of the sources. The joint venture booked a net loss of 254.5 million yuan ($35.27 million) in 2022, its annual report showed. Out of the 200-strong team at the local unit, 58 were in investment banking and 36 in wealth management related businesses as of end-2022.
Persons: Securities, Summer Zhen, Engen Tham, Selena Li, Kane Wu, Kim Coghill Organizations: Credit Suisse, UBS, Credit Suisse Securities, Staff, Citi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, China, Swiss
MUMBAI, July 17 (Reuters) - India will need to grow at a rate of 7.6% annually for the next 25 years to become a developed nation, according to a research paper published by the central bank in its monthly bulletin on Monday. India's per capita income is currently estimated at $2,500, while it must be more than $21,664 by 2047, as per World Bank standards, to be classified as a high-income country. "It may, however, be mentioned that the best (nominal growth) India achieved over a period of consecutive 25 years in the past is a CAGR of 8.1% during 1993-94 to 2017-18." To reach that level of sustained growth, India requires investment in physical capital and reforms across sectors covering education, infrastructure, healthcare and technology, the study said. The country's industrial and services sector would need to grow at over 13% annually for these 25 years for India to achieve developed economy status, it said.
Persons: Ira Dugal, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Bank, Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, India
Opinion: How Prigozhin’s mutiny will resonate in Russia
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Chris Good | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +20 min
Chris Good: You have spent a lot of time talking to Russians and developing a deep understanding of Russian public opinion. How will Prigozhin’s rebellion resonate in the Russian public consciousness, in your view? But especially now that it’s all sort of failed in the dust, there’s certainly opinion that it’s very good that it ended. Good: In the book, you talk about public opinion in Russia as involving a set of contradictions. Do you think of Russia as having public opinion, per se, and how you would characterize that public opinion, or the state of mind of Russians, throughout this war?
Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner, Ukraine —, Jade McGlynn Jade McGlynn, Jade McGlynn, , Vladimir Putin, Chris Good, there’s, Yulia Morozova, Reuters I’ve, , Prigozhin, McGlynn, Prigozhin’s Wagner, It’s, Putin, they’re, Putin —, , Gennady, Zyuganov, ‘ Yeltsin, it’s, Stringer, Russia —, jockeying, they’ve, dismissible, Alexei Levinson, Masha Gessen, I’m, Masha, you’re, We’re, ’ Wagner, Roman Romokhov, he’s, Ramzan Kadyrov, , you’ve, Russia wouldn’t, Bill Gates Organizations: CNN, War Studies Department, King’s College London, Reuters, Communist, Southern Military District, Getty, Telegram, Soviet Union —, Twitter, Facebook, Sputnik Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Russian, Rostov, British, Don, Putin Russia, That’s, aggrievement, Chechnya, AFP, Kyiv, Soviet Union, It’s
Gifford said she thinks it's time to go back to college so she can pursue a job in social work. I grew up in a small town in Arkansas called Quitman, and I went to Arkansas State University right out of high school. In the almost 10 years I've worked here I've never worried about layoffs, but I'm weighing other options now. When he's finished, the plan is for me to return to school for a degree in social work. My advice to someone entering their 20s would be to stay out of debt, don't get credit cards, don't get a new car, and work while you have no children and lots of energy.
Persons: Emily Gifford, Gifford, doesn't, , I've, I'm, he's, that's Organizations: Service, Arkansas State University Locations: Little Rock , Arkansas, Arkansas, Quitman
The Nikkei index (.N225) jumped 2.2% to end at 32,217.43, its highest close since July 1990 and posted its biggest daily gain since Jan. 18. "The market was supported by the gains in the U.S. market on Friday. That helped keep the money flowing into risk assets in Japan," said Shigetoshi Kamada, general manager at the research department at Tachibana Securities. Hence, when U.S. shares rise, there is no reason for not buying Japanese stocks, Kamada added. All but one of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's 33-sector sub-indexes rose, with machineries (.IMCHN.T) rising 3.12% to lead the gains.
Persons: Shigetoshi Kamada, Kamada, Fanuc, Junko Fujita, Janane Venkatraman, Sohini Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Tachibana Securities, The Bank of, Reserve, Tokyo, Screen Holdings, Tokyo Stock, Utilities, Tokyo Electric Power Holdings, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, Japan, The Bank of Japan, Washington, Philadelphia
In April and May, domestic outflows totalled around 2 trillion yen ($14.81 billion) for individual investors and over 2.2 trillion yen for Japanese institutions. While foreign investors are excited about the prospect of a new era of growth in corporate Japan, domestic investors are eager to catch any profits they can, sticking to a strategy born out of decades of fleeting rallies. Reuters Graphics"It has been a trend that retail investors sell stocks at a peak. This time short-term investors sold stocks as they were cautious about the sharp gains of the Nikkei," said Shoichi Arisawa, general manager of the investment research department at IwaiCosmo Securities. "Long-term investors also sold stocks because they were saddled with losses after the Nikkei made a range-bound move for a long time."
Persons: Shoichi Arisawa, Masayuki Kubota, Kubota, Warren Buffet, Ohara, Ankur Banerjee, Junko Fujita, Rocky Swift, Gaurav Dogra, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Reuters, IwaiCosmo Securities, Rakuten Securities, Tokyo Stock, Reuters Graphics, Bank of Japan, Gaurav, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, SINGAPORE, Japan, Tokyo, Singapore, Bengaluru
Their conclusion: 19% of workers hold jobs in which at least half their tasks could be completed by AI. Researchers at Microsoft and its subsidiary GitHub recently divided software developers into two groups — one with access to an AI coding assistant, and another without. Amazon has built its own AI coding assistant, CodeWhisperer, and is encouraging its engineers to use it. Another argument from the optimists: Even as AI takes over the bulk of coding, human coders will find new ways to make themselves useful by focusing on what AI can't do. So maybe, long term, human coders will survive in some new, as-yet-to-be-determined role.
REUTERS/Ken CedenoWASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Zambia could lose gains achieved so far from macroeconomic reforms if its ongoing debt restructuring is further delayed, Treasury Secretary Felix Nkulukusa said on Wednesday. The next IMF payout to Zambia from the loan is contingent upon its bilateral creditors reaching an agreement on the long-delayed debt restructuring. The country recently completed the first review of the programme, and the next one is expected in about three months. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, director of the IMF's Strategy Policy and Review Department, was more optimistic about Zambia's debt restructuring during the panel. The IMF official said that creditors have asked to share and exchange information "sooner" during debt restructuring talks, and added that the Washington-based lender is willing to do so.
British gross domestic product will contract by 0.3% in 2023, the IMF said in its latest set of global forecasts, a smaller shrinkage than the 0.6% contraction the Fund predicted in January. Britain is no longer the only Group of Seven economy set for a fall in GDP this year as Germany is now expected to shrink by 0.1%, the IMF forecasts showed. But its contraction this year is set to be the biggest among the Group of 20 economies, according to the IMF's forecasts. After narrowly avoiding recession in 2022, Britain's economy has shown some signs of resilience in early 2023. The IMF said it expected Britain's economy would grow by 1.0% in 2024, weaker than most other G7 economies with the exception of Italy while matching Japan's expected growth rate.
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